Erie’s Crystal Ball: Will swing county pick presidential winner in 2024?

CNN setting up in preparation for the debate

With the presidential election only 55 days away, many eyes are focused on Erie to see whether it once again picks the winner. In fact, on Tuesday night CNN broadcasts live from Mercyhurst University, where it has assembled a focus group that will watch the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump together and then be interviewed by CNN anchor Phil Mattingly about their impressions.

Erie is often viewed as a bellwether in presidential elections due to its swing county status and historical voting patterns. In fact, Erie County has voted for the winner in the last four presidential elections:

  1. 2008 Presidential Election: Erie County voted for Barack Obama, who won the presidency.
  2. 2012 Presidential Election: Erie County voted for Barack Obama, who won re-election.
  3. 2016 Presidential Election: Erie County voted for Donald Trump, who won the presidency.
  4. 2020 Presidential Election: Erie County voted for Joe Biden, who won the presidency.

In general, Erie County's voting pattern can be quite indicative of broader trends in Pennsylvania, which itself is a crucial swing state.

“Pennsylvania has held 25 statewide elections for president, senator, governor, attorney general, treasurer, or auditor since 2008,” said Mercyhurst University’s Dr. Joe Morris, who is Erie’s best-known political scientist and analyst. “In 23 of those 25 elections, Erie County voted for the winner. And voters there didn’t simply support one side. They voted for 20 Democratic candidates and five Republican candidates, including Trump for president.”

For more than a decade and in keeping with Erie’s reputation as harbinger of election outcomes, journalists from near and far have sought out Morris. For the 2016 presidential election, in which Erie turned red for Trump, Morris fielded interview requests from as far away as Japan and the Netherlands.

In approaching the 2020 election, Morris was again called upon. One of the most memorable interviews came in 2019 when award-winning reporter Joie Chen traveled to Erie to interview Morris and other stakeholders for a segment on “.”

As for the 2024 election, he is equally busy here at home with interview requests from the local media, along with those from the Patriot News, USA Today, and Washington Examiner. He’s also fielded his share of international media requests. In the past month, he’s sat down at Mercyhurst with Rafael Balago, a reporter at Exame, Brazil’s main business news outlet, and is scheduled for a Sept. 20 sit-down with Cédric Guigon, a journalist with RTS, the Swiss national public radio station. He also did a live five-minute interview with the BBC’s Caitríona Perry from the Republican National Convention and another live interview with Perry from the Erie Bayfront.

“There are few counties in the United States that tell us as much about the likely outcome of a presidential election as Erie County, Pennsylvania,” Morris said. “If your eyes aren’t on the northwestern corner of the commonwealth, they should be.”

PHOTO: CNN preps for live broadcast from Mercyhurst University.